Equities are flat into the holiday week and crypto is the only active corner of the market. The 10-year has pulled back to about 4.6%, down from the ~5.3% spike, and OSF says a weak payrolls number is what would let TradFi rally. Nvidia prints earnings tonight with only a ~5.5–6.5% move implied in options; what matters to him is CapEx commentary, which is what moves the memory names.
Still long Micron, SanDisk and SK Hynix after a bounce back in Nasdaq. Micron sits 30–40% off its highs, SanDisk at least ~40% off, and SK Hynix has been “a decent amount” off as well — cheap against proven earnings and cash flow, with Nvidia CapEx guidance the catalyst that could re-light the bounce.
The tape: back-to-back green candles, revenue momentum of +36% day-on-day, and market share of Robin Hood launchpads at ~60% over the week and 77% in the last day — “the undisputed market leader, I don't think that's a debate anymore.” His market-cap-to-revenue multiple of ~2.1x still trades at a discount to the four-and-a-half-x names, and he sees fair value only forming above ~3–3.5x. Invalidation: two straight weeks of falling revenue and lost share.
After selling, OSF holds ~3M tokens — a market value of roughly $353K — his largest position. He bought his first units around Aug 12, rode out an 11-day stretch of bad price action on the cash-flow numbers, and says he would buy back below the ~$0.089–0.09 zone. A viewer put him up ~300% on the position over a few weeks; he stresses it was a thesis trade, not something to copy.
Asked about the brand's own coin, OSF said the buyback program has not started yet — funds clear slowly, then re-on-ramp to exchange — but a “decent amount” of 150–160K-odd is already sitting to be deployed. REKT is an ETH-pair token (ETH back near $5K lifts the dollar value), and its initial run-up was driven by the launch of REKT Markets, which he says kept the whole ecosystem from fading into irrelevance.
OSF pulled up a trending coin he hasn't bought: two holders with large, cheap bases (“Frank's got a massive bag”) have expressed conviction through the dump warning, and it has printed a big rebound off the lows. He calls it the current front runner — the perception has rotated off MARSCOIN — and says the market is all playing the same question: will Binance list or push it? As-transcribed: “new lie” / “new light token” — the name did not resolve cleanly.
He closed out his ink/ICAP-position coin (as-transcribed) and took his principal back after six grand remained — terminal value around a $1.5M high, awful liquidity, no lasting narrative. By contrast CASHCAT “pushed by Vlad” brought people onto Robinhood and the ecosystem is “absolutely thriving”: a meme runner is what onboards a chain, and Solana coins are explicitly off his desk — “I don't think I have an edge there.”
The stream drew a strong Chinese contingent — big enough that OSF has been added to a global Chinese group and will run a REKT-specific Space for that community. He walked the flywheel: freshly dropped NFTs, the drinks (natural caffeine + L-theanine; cherry cola, blue raspberry, watermelon), REKT Markets, and an affiliate program paying 10% of signups — one affiliate he quoted is over $1K up and “more than covers the cost of your annual membership.”