The Big Old Short Squeeze
OSF sits on his hands as memory names rip, PONS holds a 75% moat, and BOSCAT hands him a random $53K winner
Memory names on screen — Nebius up 37% in five days
The memory/AI complex went vertical: Nebius up another 6% on the day and 37% over five sessions, Sandisk +25% in five days (only -5% on the month after July's crash), while Micron lagged at +7.5%. OSF booked a strong Nebius trade — 65% from ~188 to 217/218, then a further 35% up to ~254/255 — but says he sold way too soon and won't chase. He frames the whole move as good numbers forcing a squeeze on shorts, with Michael Burry publicly short Micron and Nebius.
The one long OSF flagged as tempting was SK Hynix, up just 8% in five days versus Sandisk's 25% and still down ~20% on the month — 'massively underperformed.' He likes trading the Korean-listed line over the ADR for its ~30-35% discount (one-way convertible, which he expects to correct over the next year) and the Temasek stake as a floor. 'I think the lows are in for that sort of stuff — I'd be buying dips.'
OSF's surprise winner of the week: he put $976 into BOSCAT — a PONS-launched coin from the community's Boscat — before it bonded, and it ripped from a sub-$10K market cap to roughly 700K. He's up ~$53K on it but owns 7-8% of supply so he can't really sell; he's told Boscat and Bobby Axelrod (running it) they can use his bag for supply if needed. As-transcribed market cap read ~559K at a 0.07 price after some supply was burnt.
PONS remains OSF's core on-chain conviction and his largest at a 186K position (~10% of book). He cited 75% fee market share over the last 24 hours even after competitors launched, ~95K of protocol revenue in the last 24h and ~15% week-over-week revenue growth, with 27.4% of supply now burnt (~2% a week). At ~0.6x revenue versus PUMP's ~3.5x he sees it as cheap; he'd 'rather ride it lower' than sell while the metrics keep climbing.
Robinhood-chain memes cooled hard: OSF flagged CATS -25%, FRONG -19%, CASHCAT -16%, with some names down 35-50% on the day and volumes clearly lower. He still calls CASHCAT the most obvious Robinhood play if there's a big move, but won't hold it — his fear is vamps and rotation (e.g. into CAT if it runs 300%). 'I don't want to spend my time thinking about whether people rotate out of CASHCAT into CAT.' He thinks on-chain gets a retest over the next few days.
OSF's clearest bearish takes: short PUMP as the obvious on-chain hedge — he thinks Pump used its own token to pay influencer/creator deals, faces constant unlocks, and heads lower. He also shorted HYPE live during the show at a ~55.5/56 average, arguing Hyperliquid and Lighter are 'printing new lows every week' in revenue on DeFiLlama as CEX competition rises and HYPE's team unlocked a big chunk two weeks ago. He sees crypto testing the lower band, Bitcoin possibly toward 60-61K.
PONS launched DJT (Trump Media) tokenized-stock trading; thin liquidity sent the token to ~10-20x its real stock price on a couple million dollars of volume. OSF is intrigued by 'stock meets meme' as the only genuinely new idea — a micro-cap meme denominated in a multi-billion-dollar stock — but stays cautious on tokenized securities generally (real securities-law overhang for Robinhood, not the launchers). He'd own a GME-style coin if a real meme-stock story hit mainstream; sees PONS with a structural edge over stonk.fun on Solana.
OSF flagged a few sneaky small positions: IMD, up sharply and nearly doubled on the week (lows ~60-70 cents); FREN (~$2K) — a rebranded token tied to a vibe-coding launchpad, dev Surfcomber ex-FriendPets, that Ansem has reportedly been buying; and a ~1.6K bag in a Coinbase-listed coin being taken over by 'Ulyss app,' run by ex-Voyager guys. All tiny — proof of how little risk he's carrying. (Names as-transcribed: IMD / FREN / Ulyss.)