THE DAILY REKT

Markets • Tokens • The Long Game
No. 18 — Wednesday, August 12, 2026 2026-08-12

Inflation Bangs In Line and AI Rips: A $32K Overnight on Nebius

CPI prints exactly as penciled at 3.4%, NASDAQ +0.8% on short covering — and a 1,000-share Nebius round trip closes just before the breakout

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The US CPI chart OSF pulled up — dead-on at 3.4%, a relief rally rather than a risk-on signal.
August CPI landed exactly on expectations — 3.4% year-over-year versus 3.4% penciled in, core a tenth hot at 2.5%, nothing revised — and OSF read it as a relief rally, not a gung-ho green light. SPX finished +0.2% and NASDAQ +0.8%, powered by short covering across the AI complex after CoreWeave's beat and strong Nebius numbers of their own.

The $32K Overnight: Nebius Round Trip Before the Breakout

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The closed Nebius position — 1,000 shares from 190 to 222.

OSF bought 1,000 Nebius shares at $190 yesterday and sold at $222 — a $32,000 win in under 12 hours — then watched it punch through the 225-226 level he had flagged as the big breakout. He still took the money, noting Michael Burry's short may be fueling the squeeze, and that stacking these quick wins is how the month builds.

Memory Retests the Ceiling — and He's Not Adding

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Micron and SanDisk pressing resistance once more.

Micron is back at its ~$1,000 resistance and SanDisk at ~$1,500, bouncing hard on short covering after three weeks of faded gains. OSF says Nebius has the stronger fundamental story to reprice, but this is not where he adds risk — the next two or three days will tell whether the rally holds or rolls over like the last two.

Bitcoin Stuck Since June, On-Chain Quietly Thriving

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The Bitcoin chart mid-discussion — stuck in its range since June.

The range that has held Bitcoin since the start of June keeps tightening, and OSF says the Clarity Act is the next real catalyst — bullish or bearish depending on the form it is signed in, with chatter of the CFTC and SEC jumping in prematurely. For now the stable tape has been good for on-chain: majors grinding while the alt ecosystems rotate.

PONS Presses Its 0.04849 Enemy — Burned Supply Past 27%

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PONS testing the 0.04849 level that keeps rejecting it — near all-time highs.

PONS closed above yesterday's print, just shy of the all-time high, having been turned back at 0.04849 four times — OSF's 'edging' chart waiting for the break. The stats back it: $110K in 24-hour protocol fees, a 68% share of fees over the last day and 49% over seven, with revenue momentum (seven days versus the prior seven) flipping green for the first time in a week. Supply burned sits at 27.1% and rising about a point a week — 'it cannot stay at this market cap' if revenues persist.

CATS Hits $20M and He's Kicking Himself

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The Gekko leaderboard as CATS printed $20 million.

The PONS-chain cat nobody bought: OSF and Tabs flagged the slippage when a $1K order could barely fill, and passed. Now it is a $20M market cap with $2.7M in volume — a move he says would be $200M+ in a full bull market. Elsewhere on the Gekko board: pipe dog out of nowhere, STONKBROKER's launchpad seemingly delayed (he'd rather see delayed than broken), Tendies rotating into Timcat, and Uptake down hard but still above his entry.

Two Losers Cut: Chowder and From Coin

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From coin's slide from a 17M peak toward 4.26M.

OSF sold his Chowder after it nuked 80%, salvaging the last $1.5K once the Uniswap-pool narrative that had to carry it never landed. From coin also got decimated, sliding from a $17M peak — he and Tabs had flagged it around $15-16M — to a $4.26M market cap, and he sold that too. Small bags, small damage, but both logged as lessons on narrative timing.

Boss Cat Stays the Bag; $25K for the 1-5M Ideas

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The DJ book — Boss Cat still riding.

He cannot sell Boss Cat — bought too cheap, 'a bit of a dick move' — and is building a $25K experiment fund for one-to-five-million market cap stories he believes in: FWA, the STONKBROKER thesis, and a fresh Boss Cat theory post he is backing with $1.5K. FRONG, where Tabs made money, stays on the watchlist.

Stay Tuned: The Rekt Build (no chart)

After days of brainstorming, OSF says the Rekt team has settled on one idea he has been building — more token sinks, more demand for WRECKED, and he was checking the buyback funds were ready today. 'Some cool things on chain people can make money on' are coming over the next few weeks.