THE MARKET OPEN

Markets & Banter • threadguy
Friday, August 14, 2026 2026-08-14

Everyone Is Scamming (no chart)

Singer, editor, heiress, and an NBA star — threadguy opens Friday with a gallery of 'loot-and-rob' chaos before breaking down the Josh Kushner–Lakers saga.

threadguy opened Friday's MARKET OPEN by walking through what he called an 'everyone is scamming' era, stacking four stories that broke within days: Selena Gomez sued over her collapsed Wondermind mental-health startup, Forbes editor Randall Lane fired over a ~$6M undisclosed payment, Bill Gates' 23-year-old daughter Phoebe Gates facing scrutiny at discount-startup Fia, and a Kawhi Leonard salary-cap scandal tied to Clippers owner Steve Ballmer. His read: the only countertrade to a scam society is a longer time horizon — or law school.

Josh Kushner Buys the Lakers (no chart)

threadguy recapped the stunning ownership flip: Mark Walter bought the Lakers a year ago for $10 billion and sold within months to Josh Kushner and Bob Iger. He tied it to a federal investigation of Walter — a whistleblower alleged an undisclosed related-party relationship, with ~$2 billion in disclosed revenue versus an alleged $16-17 billion — and flagged the White House symbolism: Walter (who also owns the World Series-winning Dodgers) handed Trump a championship ring, which threadguy said he cannot recall a president ever receiving. He also traced Kushner's earlier swing at buying a 20% stake of the World Cup via a FIFA-linked commercial vehicle, a deal that collapsed after UEFA and member federations balked. LeBron, he noted, said a source close to him suggested the ownership change might have influenced his decision had it happened first.

Stocks Are Ripping (no chart)

threadguy admitted surprise that equities are V-recovering instead of going choppy after the recent deleveraging event, saying the tape is 'insanely hot' with a futures read he quoted at 58 and an index up another ~3%. He worried the rip undermines his thesis that volatility would chase back into crypto because it can no longer be found in stocks. On the crypto side, outside his favored names, he described the board as 'on life support' and noted BTC's inverted chart — while hedge claims YouTube gang was shorting via the inverse — though he holds no Bitcoin himself.

The Problem With Memecoins (no chart)

threadguy kept his singular best coin thesis on PUMP but confessed he is miserable in it: a six-figure unrealized P&L he is scared to round-trip. He set a public rule that if Pump.fun post-revenue printed higher yesterday than two days ago he would have to call it fake and sell — but it came in lower, so he is staying in. On HYPE he noted open interest sitting at an all-time high, while flagging 'low hold times on coins' as a theme on his mind. He reiterated he's an on-chain believer, not a meme-coin moon boy.

The AI-Cloud Trade (no chart)

threadguy revisited the Nvidia $500 billion financing story from earlier in the week, saying he had not had super-conviction at the time but that the obvious beneficiaries — Nebius (NBIS), CoreWeave, and Shaw's — were all up roughly 30%. He lamented not trading NBIS himself, noting the extended entry window the move offered before it ran.

The Countertrade (no chart)

Closing the opening hour, threadguy argued that when the whole herd is selling out 'as fast as possible' and front-running an economic decline, the only winning move in public markets is to raise your time horizon. He conceded the vibe is a little dark while watching it unfold, but insisted the herd cannot always be right and that players have more time than the panic suggests.