Aschenbrenner's Situation Awareness sold its entire public investment book, disclosed on CNBC at 9:46 a.m. on July 30, and the stream's verdict was simple: "the market did in fact remain irrational longer than Leopold could stay solvent." His biggest holding, Nebius (NBIS) — roughly 38% of the portfolio and 5% of the company, average buy around $197 — was up 34.14% on the day, worth about $1.5 billion of missed upside in the two weeks since the sale. The rest of the book followed: Bloom Energy, sold at $176, up 13% yesterday; SanDisk, 18% of the stock portfolio, sold at $1,000 and up 26%; CoreWeave, 14% of the book, sold at $66 and now up 59% on a $60 billion stock — 73% off where he sold at the day's peak; and "Shahz" (as-transcribed), 4% of the portfolio, the day's biggest gainer at $70 and climbing to $73. Applied Digital (APLD) rounded out the list. "He's going to be so fine, he's going to make so many billion dollars," threadguy shrugged — "but it's got to hurt."
The open was green across the board — SPX +0.21%, Nasdaq 100 +0.34%, Dow +0.28%, SOX +0.23%, IGV +1% — and the S&P went on to print a fresh intraday all-time high, with the Nasdaq on the cusp of its own. Dell made an emphatic new high, up 4%, and Netflix added 2% after Bill Ackman's Pershing Square disclosed a 3.15 million-share position worth roughly $234 million, about 5% of his portfolio. The losers were telling: Cerebrus (CBRS) got destroyed on earnings, down 11%, and StubHub fell 13-14% after posting another loss — threadguy called it a "criminal company" whose CEO reportedly runs a ticket-scalping hedge fund on top of his own platform. HOOD +5%, Coinbase +3%, Circle +3%, MSTR ~96, Take-Two at $242, Micron at $937. Iran said no vessel would pass the Strait of Hormuz without its approval, and crude opened down about 3% with Brent off 2%.
Bitcoin opened around $63.5K — "due for a move one way or another" — and did little else, which became the running gag of the tape: "the everything bull market — oil up, stocks up, crypto down, gold up. Everything up except for Bitcoin." Yields were down across the board, gold off 0.5%, copper flat, Zcash flat and Monero up a touch. The crypto standout was Hyperliquid at $57.6, the highest since late July if it can clear 60, with open interest climbing hard even as fees and revenue lag — "OI is going up a lot. That's a good metric."
PumpFun bought back $888,000 worth of tokens yesterday — the most since January 30, when the 2x buyback program was running about $1.8 million a day — and the token itself kept climbing, roughly 2,818 to 2,870 on the session. threadguy laid out the on-chain revival thesis: meme coins found their floor on October 11, 2025, "the one day they could have died and never been traded again," tooling got good, and the catalysts arrived — Robinhood launching a chain, CashCat-style runners, and two nine-figure runners back to back that made everyone look at the fees at once. The platform also announced "call-out rewards": broadcast a token you believe in and get paid daily based on its performance.
Eli Lilly traded essentially at an all-time high with a $1.15 trillion market cap, and the story is retatrutide: the GLP-3 "fat shredder" that, unlike GLP-1 appetite suppressants, doesn't make you feel full — it just burns fat, and per the stream, has shown heart-health and cancer-growth-slowing data. Approval in the US is close, and Lilly is already waging war on the gray market: six lawsuits against companies selling the still-experimental drug, and 14,000 websites and social posts reported to regulators across 100 countries. threadguy's take: the prescription gate is about controlling distribution, not safety — "when this gets approved, it's going to be one of the craziest selling drugs in the history of the world" — and for most people, being overweight is worse than the mental side effects.
threadguy's biggest belief got a live test: the death of soft influence and the rise of the P&L — "being funny and active on Twitter is a commodity; having a profitable on-chain record is not." He walked through the Frank Degods back-and-forth with Evan, where the numbers cut hard: average hold times across top wallets of about 2 days 23 hours, with Evan's retort "I invest money in equities, I gamble money on-chain" and his own verdict that your opinion on copy trading is an IQ test. Robert Leshner, recounting yesterday's Chopping Block appearance, made the tokenized-stocks case that converted him: programmability on top of the most liquid market in history — backing a meme coin with a real asset instead of nothing with nothing.
The Bloomberg/Betterment data made the case for the next wave: 52% of Gen Z has redirected investing funds into sports betting, and 26% treat it as a deliberate part of their long-term financial plan — versus 1% of Boomers and 6% of Gen X, with 31% of Millennials having moved investment money into bets at least once. On yesterday's Chopping Block, asked for his single strongest belief for the next decade, threadguy's answer was the rise of active investing: every generation plays the highest-leverage game available to it — e-commerce for Zoomers, on-chain for Gen Alpha — and the sports-betting money is undecided money ready to be sniped.
Google DeepMind's Gemini Robotics 2 and 1X's Neo demo look incredible — full-body humanoid control, robots tying knots and opening Funyuns — but threadguy's favorite YouTuber spent days at MIT with actual robotics researchers, and the people building this stuff without fundraising incentives say a robot that replaces your maid is 10+ years away, at best. Multi-finger dexterity success rates range from 0% to 90% in the fine print of most demos, and the consensus is the field needs above 95% to matter. The tradeable angle: Unitary IPOs this month with the G1 humanoid at a $13,500 entry point, while Chinese firm Aggiebot ships at scale — "we might get GTA 6 before humanoid robots in the kitchen."