The 30-Year's Two Options
Topping out this quarter — or 6% without the pain
US 30-Year yield at 5.213% (+0.35% on the day), multi-decade weekly chart from 1994
His link-only post was a four-chart vol dump: the BTC Volatility Index reads ~37.5, down 2.2–2.3% across the day's timeframes — compressed vs. the 40–140 spikes of this year, but still well above the sub-30 range of 2024.
Gold spot is down 3.20% at $4,455 on the week — and Mandelbrot's question is who buys the dip: "wyd if China steps into the gold market next week and buys the soybean fed paper-handed American panic sells?" His chart set pairs the gold weekly with the dollar at 99.68 and the US 2-year at 4.360% (+12.6bp, +2.98% on the day).
"Bessent + Warsh are just controlling bond vol," he wrote — and once the market comes to terms with it, "DXY will be well on its way to 96." His question for the next two weeks: what if the econ data comes in soft, with midterms looming and the data "massaged" accordingly. Text-only post, no chart.
He amplified Chamath's warning on the long bond: "If you see 30 year yields at 6%, it is the beginning of a death spiral" — with the only solution being Congress coming together to fix the problem. The two-part 30-year setup from his later post is the same theme: top out now, or pay later. Text-only post, no chart.