The short book is officially closed at a loss, with the logic on display: "Yep, booked -32% (I didn't close them at 66k as the criteria was a weekly close… came apparent this would be the case closer to 68k). They got rotated to November last week." To the charge that he'd been short for weeks: "Brother I was scalping 4% BTC moves in a range for months while building a November IBIT put position. All while routinely long good alts." The 66k weekly-close invalidation, the forced loss near 68k, and the roll into November puts — the bearish BTC thesis now lives in the options book, not the short book.
Quoting his own July re-leverage call, the two-word verdict: "Oh yeah." The follow-up frame does the talking — "Surely this is building up energy for a move. Helps that rates look toppy" — gold coiling while the rate backdrop finally tilts its way.
"While tech-centric names are getting all the love and attention as of late, I do wonder if it's time for commodities here. Looks like a lot of bottomed out charts that may return some peaceful returns." Four bottomed-out commodity charts, then the payoff line: "Nasdaq exactly unchanged. Commodity charts up 20%. Extremely peaceful indeed" — complete with the callback to his own July "How did I do?" chart post.
The gold/silver analog gets walked back in real time: "Saw the Clemente video, I no longer have the same level of conviction on this idea. Prob best to be closer to 50:50 than 25:75." The tape is already telling the story: "Right now you have one coin holding above *ATHs and it's not the one that got the SEC headline / Trump shoutout… Can always change ofc."
"Walmart just posted its slowest US sales growth in 6 YEARS" — and Mandelbrot's response is a chart and two words: "$WMT. Time to buy." The follow-up ties it to the macro thread: "That previous sales dip in 2023? Mhmm" — the 2023 analog again, this time in a retailer's sales line. Earlier, to the headline itself: "Guess that's what happens when people finally get tired of those aisles."
The night thread started by quoting the unlikeliest bull: "BREAKING: Jim Cramer just said 'Just go buy Bitcoin. Don't buy the derivatives.'" First post: one word — "Observing" — over a chart. Then the positioning line: "No shorts, but maybe have some cash to buy a weekend liq grab." Then, to the doubters: "No, you don't understand." No shorts, dry powder, and a weekend liquidation grab in the crosshairs.
Replying to @notthreadguy: "October 23 is burned in my mind because: 1. Metals and crypto were pumping together 2. Whilst equities were drawing down 3. Catalyst for equity drawdown was rates panic. Rhymes with today." The historical map for everything else he posted — rates panic as the trigger, metals and crypto the beneficiaries, equities the drawdown.
Just past midnight he shared a clip carrying the line "I think the Bitcoin bump was a dead-cat bounce. It's not hitting a new high any time soon. There are more valuable things for individuals and institutions to own IMO" — a fitting cap to a day where his own BTC short was booked -32% and the November put position does the bearish work.