"1. Quarterly liq map at previous bear market high (heavily skewed, we all know what happened from there). 2. Quarterly liq map within previous range (admittedly neutral, see quote, I should have never bothered). 3. Quarterly liq map today (yes, back to 'bearish' skew, but BTC actually has a thesis this time, US admin desperate to keep equities on life support, not as interested in trying the short)." The thread's closing frame is the honest tension: "You need to keep 3. in the back of your mind, it resembles 1. no doubt. It's up to you to decide if we have the tailwind to look past that." The feared chart is the one he was playing for on the final flush — "that never came."
"Knock Knock. 2021's at your door." The callback to his Aug 7 quote-tweet of Zerohedge — the BofA Bull & Bear Indicator at 9.7, highest since 2021, in sell-signal territory — now comes with a fresh chart and a thread of second thoughts: "No way I'm not jinxing this and we get some fugazzi green action tomorrow." "Friday if opex? Pretty much made for crossing you up." And his most bullish read of all: "The most bullish thing may be that it hasn't been in sync with the stock market in quite some time. Reminiscing Oct 2023."
The dip-buyer warning from 01:08 UTC aged in a single session: "$HYPE. Highest daily close in history loading?…" — and by evening he confirmed the reposition: "Stopped back into the full position at $72 (pretty much netted out)." That's the $63 dip-buyer level from the morning post, the $72 invalidation cleared with strength, and a full-size position back on for the ATH push.
"Personally I own around 3x more HYPE than I do LIT here. Feel like this could end up paralleling gold (HYPE) and silver (LIT). Maybe a brutal analog, but these will continue taking turns leading (i.e. if/when these assets break their respective ATHs)." A follow-up LIT chart with "Let's see what it gives" completes the pair — the leadership-rotation thesis drawn out across two names.
"Stopped out on the loss of daily trend + POC. I'll take that technical set up any day given the negative sentiment, plus my own fears + lack of engagement/enthusiasm. I'd say this continued weakness is notable, given we have Bessent actively trying to jam up markets + opex flows… Tomorrow is opex so take whatever action you get with a grain of salt. I'll probably try the trade again if we reclaim those levels, but this action is only confirming my HTF worries."
"*IF* we get a repeat of today's action tomorrow, this chart is so cooked beyond words. Nobody is going to hang around for muh Anthropic IPO if this deviation locks in… (I've already highlighted that this deviation is likely to lock in on a currency-adjusted basis)." Earlier: "Getting prettttty close to that 'perfect' retest territory… Question is— do you want it?" with the 7700-into-7600 zone his quoted post had flagged: "Bullish ATH breaks don't tend to give perfect retests, I'd be concerned if it does…"
Asked about his semiconductor exposure, he listed the book: "Yeah I have DRAM MU SOXL. But if these charts break, I close. (Long term TSM bag too)." The semis are a line in the sand — held while the charts hold, closed the moment they don't.
Two charts, two words: "$GOLD $SPX. North Star." The callback to his Aug 10 "Re-leveraged again this morning" post reframes gold's structure as the guide for the tape — the ratio trade (XAUUSD/SPX) that keeps grinding while the dollar slides and US assets lag.