The morning trade: "Long around $220 this morning (should have filled before victory lapping — lesson in there). Such a critical level here. Close below $220 and I'd assume that $200 earnings gap gets filled. Good r:r for an attempt though." The pre-market chart had already shown the pain — Nebius down to 214.80 (-13.44%) in the early session, prompting a terse "Faded?" — before he stepped in near $220. By the close it had clawed back to 223.95 (-9.85%): "Saved by the close… If I'm just playing the chart, I hold, but Warren has me a little worried. Something for you to consider, chart says good R:R, but fundamentals may be loosening."
The arrow he planted the day before pointed at Aug 20 — "Aug 20 is the date of this randomly placed arrow btw. Let's watch" — and this morning's chart asks the room whether they're nervous about the drawdown in view. In the thread's follow-up he layers the macro on top: "The news today combined with tech sucking wind makes this less likely to come to fruition. Metals and crypto make complete sense off this vs. US assets, but jury is still out that both of the former can rip together. Important next few days for crypto to show its direction." The position panel on the chart is visibly underwater — the point of the question.
"It's hard to see why gold and crypto don't continue running off this. But I'm pretty mixed on US assets here." The reply-with-chart, addressed to the commenter who closed his shorts and puts into the announcement, carries his honest two-sided read: "You could still be right though, US indices may just be an underperformer while this news caps any realized vol to the downside." The attached QQQ*DXY product chart at 71,005 (-0.69%) is the dollar-driven tape he keeps circling — the underperformer thesis, drawn.
"Let's see what all these foreign buyers think of the treasuries' decision to 'sacrifice the dollar.' (They're probably hedged, but let's play with the narrative anyway.)" The chart underneath is the punchline: record-high global demand for US equities, 12-month sum of net foreign inflows at all-time levels. The QQQ*DXY companion frame (70,975, -0.73%) shows the same dollar slide in equity terms. The narrative is simple — the buyers who funded the bull market are being paid in a depreciating reserve currency — and he's explicit that the hedge assumption is doing a lot of work.
The third frame of the treasury post is the ratio trade that keeps printing: XAUUSD/SPX at 0.582, +3.27%, grinding higher as the dollar weakens. It's the visual for his standing conviction that metals make complete sense off this vs. US assets — while the jury stays out on whether metals and crypto can rip together. The ratio is the cleanest expression of the rotation: gold quietly outrunning the S&P in dollar terms.
"Let's see if we can fill this gap before JHole…" The request is modest — a gap fill, ideally with a close above the daily trend and "most importantly the POC" — but the setup has him fighting his own brain: "QQQ is red during peak OPEX flows + announcement of pseudo YCC (positive news getting faded), but perhaps delayed reaction." The pseudo-YCC read is the whole day in miniature: the dollar-sacrifice news is supposed to be bullish risk, and the tape is fading it — for now. (The tweet's chart image was no longer retrievable from X.)
"Hmm. I put some AI scalp longs on today, but something to chew on…" — the quote is Warren Pies on the data-center complex: "Over the past week, we are seeing some early cracks in our GPU availability data...not going to overreact but have to call balls and strikes...On net, bad combo w/ the Anthropic ARR miss." Pies' follow-up keeps the tone calibrated: "Will write more on it tomorrow…situation to monitor…not panicking yet but notable." It's the same thread that has him "a little worried" on NBIS — the chart says hold, the fundamentals tape says watch.
"Let's see how the week closes out. But for now, a weak US dollar is masking what could be a pretty significant deviation." The charts: SPX*DXY at 761,556 on the daily (-4,897, -0.64%) and 761,540 on the weekly — a product at record altitude even as the S&P itself stalls. His framing is that the dollar's slide is flattering the equity tape, and the deviation underneath only shows itself when the mask comes off. How the week closes out — and whether the weekly holds — is the tell.