THE FRACTAL DAILY

Charts • Levels • Wild Randomness
Wednesday, August 12, 2026 2026-08-12

$SPCX — "They gave me my target today, so I took the money"

Fully out by 149.50 after a +40% run in five trading days; rebuying on a clean break of 150

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SPCX daily — the observe-mode chart after the target print; he is fully out by 149.50 and watching for a clean break of 150 to re-enter
Mandelbrot's flagship SpaceX trade reached its conclusion Wednesday: after being handed his target, he flipped to "full observe mode" and is fully out by 149.50, having banked roughly +40% in five trading days. "Feels" early, he admits, but he will be rebuying on a clean break of 150 — and he notes the context: "they literally just gave the BTC echo bubble target on a similarly sized asset," comparing the move to a $92k-equivalent Bitcoin move. Earlier in the session he was already over 50% taken off, so the exit was staged, not sprung.

$SPCX $TSLA — "They are selling their Tesla for SpaceX"

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SPCX vs TSLA — the rotation chart: selling Tesla for SpaceX

His read on the tape's favorite rotation: the marginal dollar is leaving Tesla and going into SpaceX. He frames it as the market selling TSLA to fund the SPCX chase — the chart pair showing one name funding the other's melt-up.

$QQQ — "So far the answer is no. Shocking"

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QQQ daily with his annotations — "So far the answer is no. Shocking"

The QQQ chart gets the terse verdict of the day: the question everyone is asking — whether the Nasdaq confirms or cracks — so far answers no, and he is unsurprised. Chart attached with his levels; the call reads as QQQ refusing to give the breakdown.

$SOXX $SOXL — "Super important final two days of the week for semis"

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SOXX/SOXL — four-chart setup into the "super important final two days of the week"

He flags the last two sessions of the week as the semis decision point, posting a four-chart setup on SOXX and SOXL. The bear angle stays NVDA dominance — in a reply he clarifies a post "Mainly wrt NVDA dominance" is "a bear post." If the SOX can't hold into Friday, the semis lead the market down with them.

"Too quiet…" — waiting on the tape

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Vol/market charts — "Too quiet…"

A two-chart post with a single warning: the market is too quiet into the week's decision points. For a trader positioning for vol, silence reads as compression — the setup before the pop, not the all-clear.

Vol — "you want the vol soon given where skew is"

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SPX/IWM vol + skew — "vol is low enough to start buying imo"

In a reply on positioning, he is explicit about the trade: with skew where it is, "a bit more to squeeze out relatively speaking," but SPX and IWM vol is low enough to start buying. The tail-hedge lean — long QQQ/SPX puts — stays intact as the cheap-vol window closes.

$CCJ — "Re-testing weekly trend… Binary spot here though"

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CCJ weekly — trend retest after the monthly bear div played out; clear it for new highs over 6 months

Uranium name Cameco sits at the line: the monthly bear divergence has played out, RSI reset, and price is now retesting the weekly trend. "Clear this and I'd expect new highs over the next 6 months" — but he is honest it is a binary spot and he is "currently on the wrong side." In a later exchange he defends his green arrows as long entries and reminds followers this is where "you would take partials and watch the reaction."

$CLS — "Fixed it"

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CLS chart — "Fixed it"

Celestica gets a one-word correction post: "Fixed it." A fresh chart after a previous version — his levels redrawn, the setup re-armed.

$CBRS — "Earnings were bad, but chart says take a chance"

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CBRS chart — bad earnings, but the chart says take a chance

The classic Mandelbrot tension: fundamentals said sell, the chart said buy. He posts the two-chart setup and picks the chart — "Earnings were bad, but chart says take a chance" — a pure technical long into weakness.